Saturday, August 17, 2013

TD 12W (Maring) and TD 13W Update #2

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 081813

Tropical Depression 12W (Bagyong Maring) continues to move slowly move to the east across the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 500km east of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are around 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 12W is moving eastward at 10kph.

Latest satellite analysis show the convection associated with TD 12W is being sheared to the southwest leaving the low-level center partially exposed. Strong upper-level winds aren't helping the system to consolidate and intensify.

TD 12W continues to track in a somewhat complex environment with the presence of a weak cyclone (TD 13W) to the north. Computer models continue to show a recurvature to the northwest in the next 2 days bringing TD 12W back near Taiwan by early next week. Environment is currently not that conducive for further development but is forecast to become more favorable allowing TD 12W to become a moderate Tropical Storm.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tropical Depression 13W, on the other hand, remains weak as it moves towards Eastern China. It was last located approximately 360km northwest of Okinawa, Japan or about 470km southeast of Shanghai, China. Maximum sustained winds are around 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 13W is moving westward at 25kph.

Tropical Depression is forecast to move into Eastern China later today bringing much needed rainfall in the region. It should also help lower temperatures temporarily, especially in Shanghai where the summer heat has been record breaking.

Due to the fast movement and the overall weak nature of the system, TD 13W is no longer expected to have much influence on TD 12W and is no longer expected to merge with the latter system. In fact, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center have already given their final warning on this system.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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