Sunday, August 18, 2013

Tropical Storm Trami (Maring) Update #3

Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 081813

TD 12W intensified and is now Tropical Storm Trami (Bagyong Maring). It was last located approximately 620km east southeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Trami is moving east southeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity starting to rebuild over the low-level center. However, convection is still being slightly sheared to the southwest. Based on analysis, it looks like Trami is located in a large monsoon-gyre like system that has been dominating the weather in the Western Pacific. Strong inflow from the southwest is feeding moisture into Trami and also has been bringing widespread rains across the Philippines.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Trami is located in a somewhat complex environment with multiple steering factors influencing its movement. We, therefore, have low confidence with the above forecast track which is based on the latest computer model guidance. We expect Trami to start recurving back to the west in the next 24 hours. It should also slowly intensify and could even become a Typhoon by as early as Wednesday. It could also track near Taiwan later that day.

Radar Image from Subic (ClimateX PH)

Focusing back to the Philippines, strong southwesterly inflow is bringing large amounts of rain across Luzon. In fact, PAGASA has raised Red Rainfall Warning for the National Capital Region due to the heavy rains that continue. As much as 50mm has already fallen in many places and 50 to 100mm could still fall over the next 24 hours. Classes has been suspended already in much of Manila.Tune in to your local news stations for the latest. Click HERE for the rainfall forecasts and radar images around the Philippines.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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