Thursday, August 8, 2013

Tropical Depression 11W (Labuyo) Update #1

Invest 96W has intensified into a Tropical Depression and has also entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility, earning the name 'Bagyong Labuyo' from PAGASA. TD 11W (Labuyo) was last located approximately 1,170km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 11W is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a cyclone that is in early stages of development. Convective activity is still rather sparse and weak. However, the low-level circulation center is improving and we are starting to see banding forming around it. The system also lies in a conducive environment with good outflow channels, weak wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. We expect TD 11W to continue intensifying in the next few days.

Early computer model forecasts show a generally west to west northwestward track which will put TD 11W on a path towards Luzon. Based on the current track speed, we expect 11W/Labuyo to begin affecting Northern Luzon by as early as Sunday evening. Furthermore, due to the favorable conditions along the path of 11W, there is a chance of it becoming a Typhoon before impacting Luzon.

Please take note, though, that the confidence here is still somewhat low due to the fact that the system is still in the early stages of development. Nevertheless, the chances of 11W impacting the Philippines (no matter at what intensity) is increasing.

We'll continue to have updates on this system throughout the day.

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