Issued (1430 UTC) 1030pm PhT 080813
A Tropical Disturbance is spotted developing across the Philippine Sea. Coded Invest 96W, it was last located about 1,700km east of Manila and is still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
IR Image from NOAA
Invest 96W is still in the early stages of development. However, we are already starting to see improved banding and good convective activity. Invest 96W is located in an area of warm sea surface temperatures with weak wind shear and good upper-level conditions.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded 96W's chances to "MEDIUM' while the Japan Meteorological Agency is already classifying it as a Tropical Depression. 96W is forecast to further develop and could even become a Tropical Storm in a few days.
Early computer model forecasts show 96W possibly affecting Luzon this weekend. But since we're still in the early life cycle of this low pressure area, there is low confidence in the forecast.
We'll have another update tomorrow morning.