Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Typhoon Soulik Update #4 (w/ Video)

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 070913
Video Update (For the latest discussion on this system, please watch the video below. Note that the winds used in the video are from JMA; JTWC has slightly higher wind estimates):

Typhoon Soulik continues to undergo rapid intensification as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 940km northwest of Guam or about 1,350km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Soulik is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a 15-nm eye has formed surrounded by strong convective activity. The system has exploded over the past 24 hours and is now really symmetric and continues to benefit from the favorable conditions in the region. Thankfully, Soulik is currently far from any islands so no stormy impacts just yet.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Soulik is forecast to continue moving west northwestward, intensifying steadily along the way. We expect the system to become a Category 3 Major Typhoon by tomorrow morning and could even become a Category 4 by Thursday.

Computer models are still showing some disagreements with the track. However, we have adjusted our forecast track to the north to account for the west northwestward movement that has been going on today. We expect Soulik to begin impacting the Ryukyu and Miyako Islands of Japan by Thursday and will get worse into Friday. The system could also pose a threat for Eastern China, including Shanghai, by this weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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