Monday, July 8, 2013

Typhoon Soulik Update #3

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 070913

Soulik has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 1 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 750km northwest of Guam or about 1,500km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Soulik is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a really good and symmetric Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with strong convective activity on all quadrants. An eye is also beginning to form as the eyewall has closed indicating continued intensification. Outflow channels are also moderately good and combined with the weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, they all provide favorable conditions for this typhoon.

There hasn't been any significant changes with the forecast track. We still expect Typhoon Soulik to continue moving generally west northwestward over the next 3 days. As said before, the system will continue intensifying, possibly becoming a Category 2 later tonight and could even become a Category 3 Typhoon by tomorrow.

Latest information still suggests a possible track towards either Taiwan or the Southern Japanese Islands with the stormy conditions beginning Thursday and lasting into Friday. By this weekend, there is a high chance that Soulik will strike Eastern China as a strong typhoon.

We'll have another update and possibly a video later today.

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