Thursday, July 11, 2013

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) Update #8 (w/ Video)

Issued: (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 071113

Video Update:

Soulik (Bagyong Huaning) has weakened to a Category 2 Typhoon today as it nears the Japanese Islands. The system was last located approximately 500km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 850km east southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 175kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Soulik is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has kept Public Storm Warning Signal #1 over Batanes Group of Islands. Likewise, the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan has issued a Sea Typhoon Warning for the approaching cyclone while the JMA has issued High Waves Warning for Yaeyema, Miyakojima, and Okinawa islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye continuing to erode as a new ring of convection tries to form and take over. Soulik has been undergoing eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) since this morning. The ERC, combined with the lower ocean heat content in the area, led to the weakening of the system. As Soulik returns to warmer waters tonight, we expect the system to regain some intensity by tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Soulik is forecast to continue moving westward tonight and then take a turn to the west northwest by tomorrow. Strong winds and high waves should begin to impact the Japanese Islands beginning tonight and will only get worse by tomorrow. The worst conditions will be felt across Miyako and nearby Islands by tomorrow afternoon.

Taiwan should also see conditions deteriorating beginning tomorrow afternoon with landfall forecast to occur by later tomorrow evening or early Saturday morning. Strong, damaging typhoon winds of up to 200kph are possible along with heavy rainfall that could accumulate to as much as 500mm. These are dangerous conditions that will be occurring in less than 48 hours. If you haven't done so already, please begin to stock up on supplies and always consult with the local officials and weather bureau for the latest warnings and forecasts for your area.

Stay safe!

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