Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) Update #7

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 071113

Typhoon Soulik (Bagyong Huaning) has slightly weakened overnight as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cyclone. The system was last located approximately 580km southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,020km east southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Soulik is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Despite the weakening that happened overnight, Soulik remains a very strong Category 4 Typhoon. The latest satellite image shows the eye remains intact although the ring of convection has eroded slightly, especially on the northwestern quadrant. Storm analysis suggests that Soulik may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, something we've talked about in our update yesterday. Furthermore, the system is also moving across a pocket of slightly cooler waters and so there isn't that much energy source for Soulik to take advantage of.

If all goes well, we expect Soulik to start re-intensifying possibly by tonight as it moves back to warmer waters and also as it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.As for the track, we still think a landfall in Taiwan is looking more and more likely. Based on latest data from the computer models, Soulik could make landfall as a Category 3 Typhoon by late Friday evening or early Saturday morning. It will be passing on the northern side of the island and could possibly make a direct hit in Taiwan by Saturday.

But even before Taiwan, Soulik should begin affecting the Southern Japanese Islands of Yaeyema, Ishigaki, Miyako, and even Okinawa by tonight with the worst conditions expected for tomorrow. As what we've been saying for a while now, if you live in those areas mentioned, please start preparing now by stocking up on supplies and monitor the developments of this system through the news and through your local officials and weather bureau.

We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!

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