Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) Update #6 (w/ Video)

Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 071013

Video Update

Soulik has finally stopped intensifying but still remains a strong Category 4 Typhoon. The storm has also entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has been given the local name of “Bagyong Huaning” by PAGASA. Typhoon Soulik/Huaning was last located approximately 840km southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,350km east southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are at 230kph with gusts of up to 280kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a well-defined eye surrounded by deep convection. Soulik remains very symmetrical and still has that excellent radial outflow. However, we have noticed a slight warming with the cloud tops and a possible eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) that could happen by tomorrow. If the ERC happens, it will cause a temporary weakening of Soulik. Nevertheless, we still expect the system to remain a very strong Typhoon up until landfall in Taiwan.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We have shifted our forecast track southward and we are now expecting Soulik to make landfall in Taiwan by later on Friday or early Saturday morning. It should start weakening by Friday although a landfall intensity of around Category 3 is still possible. Furthermore, the islands of Yaeyema and Miyako in Japan are also susceptible to strong and damaging winds and heavy rains. Even Okinawa could see some rains from the outer rain bands along with gusty winds and high waves. After Taiwan, Soulik is forecast to head towards Fujian Provinces in Southeastern China and could make landfall there by Saturday afternoon.

Please start preparing now if you live in those areas mentioned especially Taiwan. As always, consult your local officials and weather bureau for the latest warnings in your area. Stay safe!

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