Sunday, July 14, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 071513

A Tropical Disturbance has been spotted developing just east of the Philippines. This low pressure area (Invest 93W) was last located approximately 300km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. The LPA is sitting in an area of somewhat favorable conditions with low to moderate wind shear, good outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection occurring around the developing center. Further analysis indicates that a low-level circulation has formed and continues to improve by the hour. This suggests that the system is showing characteristics of a developing cyclone and could actually become one in the coming days.

For now, computer models aren't really showing significant development, although a Tropical Depression is possible in 2 or 3 days. Likewise, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is giving Invest 93W a "MEDIUM" chance for development.

We'll continue to watch this disturbance and release updates if necessary.

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