Monday, July 15, 2013

Tropical Depression 08W (Isang) Update #1

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 071613

A new Tropical Depression has formed just east of Luzon. Tropical Depression 08W, with a local Filipino name of "Bagyong Isang", was last located approximately 280km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 08W is moving northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has hoisted Public Storm Warning Signal #1 Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
Abra, Ifugao, Cagayan incl., Calayan and, Babuyan Group of Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Mt. Province, Kalinga, and Apayao.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows that TD 08W/Isang has shown significant improvements since yesterday. There is strong and organized convection with improving outflow. Convective banding has also tightened up around the low-level center. The southern periphery of TD 08W is also bringing light to moderate rains across parts of Southern Luzon and Visayas. Rains will continue throughout the day and will spread northward into Central and Northern Luzon.

The atmosphere is conducive for further development and there is a high possibility that TD 08W will intensify into a Tropical Storm within the next 2 days. Computer models are showing a track generally northwestward staying close to the east coast of Luzon. Rains will linger across much of Luzon throughout this week especially as the system begins to enhance the Southwest Monsoon. There is a possibility of landfall in Cagayan by tomorrow although the chance of that is still low at the moment.

We'll have another update on this system later this afternoon.

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