Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Tropical Depression 08W (Isang) Update #2 (w/ Video)

Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 071613

Video Update:

Tropical Depression 08W (Bagyong Isang) continues to slowly develop as it meanders just east of Luzon. The system was last located approximately 200km east of Casiguran, Aurora or about 350km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 08W is moving northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Aurora, Quirino, Isabela, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, and Batanes Group of Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows disorganized convection with no real improvements in banding. The weakening of the convection is partly due to the diurnal cycle. As the system approaches the diurnal maximum later tonight, we expect strong convection to reappear close to the circulation center.

Due to the proximity of TD 08W/Isang, rains are affecting parts of Luzon especially the eastern sections. Isolated thunderstorms associated with the depression are also popping up across the island and could bring heavy rainfall in short amount of time possibly bringing the risk of flash floods and landslides.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Depression 08W/Isang is forecast to continue moving slowly to the northwest. It could brush the coast of Cagayan Province by tomorrow (Wednesday) as a weak Tropical Storm. TD 08W is then forecast to move to the north possibly affecting Taiwan by Thursday or Friday. While we're not expecting TD 08W to become a strong cyclone, it could still intensify into a moderate Tropical Storm before moving into Taiwan.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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