Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 060613

A potential tropical cyclone is brewing just east of the Philippines. The LPA that we've been watching all week continues to show signs of improvement. The disturbance, dubbed as Invest 98W, is located approximately 520km east of Mindanao. Latest satellite analysis shows a possible low-level circulation center near the main area of convection. Further analysis reveals weak to moderate wind shear that should allow the system to continue consolidating.

IR Image from NOAA

Some computer models continue to show development with this system throughout the week. Based on the latest guidance, it looks like the system will track more to the north, avoiding moving directly across the Philippines. However, moderate to heavy rains may still impact parts of Mindanao and Visayas in the coming days. Some of these rains could bring flash floods as we've seen in the Davao Area yesterday. Rest of the country, especially the western sections, will also continue to experience partly cloudy skies with occasional rains and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon hours.

We'll continue to watch Invest 98W as it meanders across the Philippine Sea.

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