Sunday, June 2, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 060213

As we welcome the month of June, we are starting to see hints of the onset of the rainy season in the Philippines. Rains and afternoon thunderstorms are becoming more frequent and more widespread across the country. While PAGASA is saying that the rainy season hasn't begun yet, they are forecasting the rains to continue across large parts of the country.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Aside from the return of the wet season, we are also starting to see increased activity in the tropics. In fact, some computer models are hinting of a possible tropical cyclone forming later this week in the Pacific. Right now, we are watching two tropical disturbances; one of them is just east of Mindanao. This said disturbance is weak and doesn't seem to be showing signs of development. However, as it moves westward, it could bring rains across parts of Mindanao in the coming days.

The other low pressure area that we are watching is located in the Western Micronesia region. This LPA, tagged as Invest 96W, is embedded along a monsoon trough. Latest satellite analysis suggests that a low-level center may be forming. However, it is still too early to tell whether this system will evolve into a cyclone.

We'll continue watching these two systems for possible development.

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