Saturday, June 8, 2013

Tropical Storm Yagi (Dante) Update #3

Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 060913

Tropical Storm Yagi (Bagyong Dante) has begun to move north northeastward away from the Philippines. The storm was last located approximately 1,000km northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 880km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Yagi is moving north northeastward at a speed of 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows that the cloud tops near the circulation center have slightly warmed. However, overall convective activity remains strong and is continuing to show improvement with regard to the organization of the storm. We noted the presence of dry air and subsidence on the northwest quadrant of the storm on our last update and it looks like these features are impacting the development of Yagi. Nevertheless, good poleward outflow and weak vertical wind shear are helping to offset those hindrances and allowing Yagi to intensify further.

Forecasts for this system remain unchanged with the consensus continuing to show a track towards Japan. We will have to closely watch the nearby frontal system and see what effects it could bring to Yagi. For now, though, there is a good chance that the storm will continue to intensify over the next 2 days. While we're not expecting a typhoon, Yagi could still strengthen into a moderate to severe tropical storm.

We'll have another update later today.

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