Sunday, June 9, 2013

Tropical Storm Yagi (Dante) Update #4

Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 060913

Tropical Storm Yagi (Bagyong Dante) continues to pull away from the Philippines. The storm was last located approximately 760km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Yagi is moving north northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TS Yagi hasn't really shown any improvements over the past 12 hours despite the good poleward outflow and the absence of strong wind shear. In fact, the cloud tops immediately near the circulation center have warmed today. We suspect the dry air and subsidence ahead of a frontal system (which is affecting parts of the Ryukyu Islands today) are impeding the system from intensifying. Nevertheless, banding remains decent and moisture continues to get fed into the storm's circulation.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Despite the lack of intensification so far today, the area is somewhat favorable for further development. We are forecasting Yagi to reach a peak intensity of around Severe Tropical Storm-strength over the next 48 hours before beginning to weaken as it moves across cooler waters. There has been no significant change with the track forecast either. Computer models are in close agreement with a future track towards Japan by Tuesday or Wednesday. We may have to shift the landfall point, however, as we move ahead in time.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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