Sunday, June 16, 2013

Tropical Depression Emong (91W) Update #1

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 061713

A new Tropical Depression has formed in the Western Pacific basin. Both PAGASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency have upgraded Invest 91W into a Tropical Depression; PAGASA has given the system a local name of "Emong". As for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the said agency has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) indicating a high chance of development into a cyclone.

TD 91W (Emong) was last located approximately 320km east southeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 680km east southeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at around 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 91W is moving north northwestward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA hasn't issued any Public Storm Warning Signals.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the system is still in its formative stages. There is very little convection forming near the center, although convective banding is improving. Satellite analysis also suggests that the low-level center is tightening and is starting to have stronger winds near the core. But while the system is east of the Philippines, it is enhancing some rain showers particularly across Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region. Some areas here could receive as much as 50mm of rain today which could cause some flooding.

Tropical Depression 91W (Emong) is forecast to continue moving north northwestward parallel the Philippine Coast. As of right now, it is not forecast to make landfall in the country although rains from the monsoon will certainly continue affecting the country in the days to come.

TD 91W is moving in a somewhat favorable region which should allow it to intensify into a Tropical Storm over the next 48 hours. So far, computer models are showing a track to the north perhaps moving near the Ryukyu Islands later this week.

We'll have another update later this evening.

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