Friday, June 14, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 061513

The rainy season is starting to kick into high gear now as more rain showers and thunderstorms affect parts of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines. Flooding has been reported in many areas including Metro Manila forcing the cancellation of classes in many schools. The rains currently impacting the country are brought about by the enhancement of the monsoonal flow courtesy of a tropical disturbance in the South China Sea. Aside from that, we are also watching a low pressure area in the Pacific which could impact Southern Philippines over the next few days.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 99W is currently located just south of Hong Kong. A weak but organized low-level circulation continues to spin up but isn't really showing any signs of improvement due to the moderate wind shear in the region. Chances of development are still low to medium especially since the circulation is nearing Southern China. Nevertheless, rains will continue for parts of Southern China including Hong Kong, parts of Indochina, and also the Philippines.

Another disturbance that we are watching is Invest 91W. This LPA is located a few hundred kilometers east of Mindanao. Some computer models have previously hinted of a possible cyclone forming in this region; however, recent model runs have backed off from that scenario. But even though it may not intensify into a Tropical Cyclone, 91W is still forecast to bring rains across parts of Visayas and Mindanao as it continues to push westward.

We'll have another update this weekend.

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