Monday, June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression 04W (Emong) Update #3

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 061813

Tropical Depression 04W (Emong) has intensified overnight and continues to move northwards near Luzon. The system was last located approximately 500km east of Casiguran, Aurora or about 680km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 04W is moving northward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, there are no Public Storm Warning Signals issued by PAGASA. The heavy rains that impacted much of Luzon last night have pretty much weakened; no rainfall alerts are currently hoisted.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows that the convective activity has improved greatly overnight. We're seeing cold cloud tops forming near the low-level center in addition to the formative banding that continues to tighten up. The system continues to have good poleward outflow and is forecast to continue intensifying over the next 2 days.

Though offshore, TD Emong is still enhancing some rains across parts of Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region. Isolated storms could also pop up across portions of Luzon and Mindanao throughout the day today.

TD 04W/Emong is not forecast to make landfall in the Philippines. It should continue moving northward towards the direction of the Miyako and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. We expect the system to intensify into a Tropical Storm by tomorrow (or maybe as early as tonight) and should begin to impact the Japanese Islands by Wednesday.

We'll have another update later this evening.

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