Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Tropical Update

The low pressure area (Invest 92W) that we've been watching continues to move closer to the coast of Mindanao. LPA 92W was last located approximately 270km east southeast of Hinatuan or about 350km east northeast of Davao City. The disturbance is moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the clouds and convection associated with LPA 92W moving closer to Mindanao. In fact, rains have already been reported in many areas particularly in Surigao and Agusan Provinces. Parts of Eastern Visayas are also beginning to receive light rains.

Since 92W is already nearing land, we no longer expect it to intensify into a tropical cyclone. However, heavy rains are possible across entire Mindanao and parts of Visayas for the next two days. Many areas here could get more than 100mm of rain increasing the likelihood of flash floods and landslides. While this is not a full-blown tropical cyclone, we urge everyone to remain vigilant and always monitor the news for the latest warnings from your local officials!

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFFICIAL!)

Above is our 2-day rainfall accumulation forecast; we have also included the track of the low pressure area. Areas in green shading should expect around 50mm of rain for the next 48 hours; these areas include Southern Mindanao, parts of Central and Eastern Visayas, as well as parts of the Bicol Region. The northeast monsoon (Amihan) could also bring up to 50mm to parts of Northern and Central Luzon (eg Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon).

Provinces under the blue shading should expect periods of moderate rain amounting to 100mm in 48 hours. Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and large parts of Mindanao are included in these shadings. Flooding and landslides are possible.

Finally, areas under the red shading should expect periods of moderate to heavy rains with amounts of 150mm or more possible in the next 48 hours. Areas most prone are Northern Mindanao (Surigao, Agusan, Bukidnon) as well as parts of Visayas. Flooding and landslides are likely across these areas especially in mountainous and low-lying regions.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 010212

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