Friday, January 11, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 011113

Invest 94W, the low pressure area that we've been watching for more than a week already, is showing signs of improvement and could actually become a cyclone in the next two days. The disturbance was last located approximately 320km east of Surigao City. Winds near the center are estimated to be around 30 to 50kph. LPA 94W is moving north northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the convection associated with this system is located north of the circulation center. Wind shear has decreased and vorticity signature has increased which could mean that the system is trying to consolidate. Because of these developments, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded 94W's chances to 'MEDIUM'. In fact, the Japan Meteorological Agency has already upgraded this to a Tropical Depression since yesterday.

Clouds associated with this LPA continue to bring rains across Eastern Visayas and Mindanao. Many areas are already reporting amounts of between 30 and 80mm in 24 hours; the highest amounts have been recorded across Samar and Surigao. Even places farther north such as Quezon Province and the Bicol Region are reporting rainfall amounts of up to 50mm. For the latest radar images and forecasts, please click HERE (ClimateX PH)

2-Day Rainfall and LPA Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

The map above combines our two day rainfall forecast as well as the potential track for this tropical disturbance. As we've said before, the chances of development has increased and we could definitely see this system being upgraded to a depression both by PAGASA and JTWC in the next two days. Latest computer models show the system tracking generally northward. It will be tracking near the eastern coasts of the Philippines and could brush the island of Catanduanes.

As for the rains, up to 100 to even 200mm could fall in some areas throughout this weekend. The heaviest rains could fall across the Bicol Region and parts of Eastern Visayas. Southern Luzon including Metro Manila could also see some light rains over the next few days especially the provinces of Quezon, and Aurora. Always make sure to tune in to the latest TV and Radio reports for any warnings and forecasts from your official agencies.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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