Thursday, January 10, 2013

Tropical Update

Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 011013

The Low Pressure Area, Invest 94W, that we've been watching for almost a week now continues to spin near Mindanao. Meanwhile, the rains associated with what once was Tropical Depression Sonamu continues to linger across the South China Sea bringing light rains in the region.

IR Image from NOAA

A new wave of heavy rains is now pushing across Eastern Philippines today brought by the combined effects of Invest 94W and wind convergence in the Philippine Sea. Invest 94W was last located approximately 450km southeast of Davao City and is moving slowly northward. This LPA currently has a low chance of development but those chances could increase as we move into tomorrow and into the weekend.

For now, rains associated with these systems are bringing light to moderate rains across Northern Mindanao and parts of Eastern Visayas. Some stations here are reporting as much as 10 to 20mm of rain per hour. We are expecting up to 150 to even 200mm of rain to fall in this region over the next two days. The areas likely to see the heaviest rains are Eastern Visayas (particularly Samar), Northern Mindanao (Surigao Provinces), and the Bicol Region. The 2-day rainfall map below shows the extent of the rainfall and the projected amounts. Rains will slowly move northward by later tomorrow and by Saturday, we could see widespread rains impact Eastern Luzon as well.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

For the latest rainfall forecasts and radar images, please click HERE

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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