Thursday, January 3, 2013

Tropical Depression 92W (Auring) Update #2 (w/ Video)

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 010313

Here is our latest Video Update on TD Auring. Scroll down below for our complete Text Update.

Text Update

Tropical Depression 92W (now named Bagyong Auring by PAGASA) is now moving across Sulu Sea after making landfall in Mindanao last night. The system was last located approximately 210km southeast of Puerto Princesa City or about 290km northwest of Zamboanga City. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Auring is moving westward at 35kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has lowered Public Storm Warning Signal #1 except in Palawan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the convection associated with Auring pushing westward into Palawan. Up to 100mm should be expected to fall there later tonight. In terms of organization, Auring hasn't really shown any significant improvement in the past 12 hours. Convection is persisting but the core hasn't improved and banding hasn't really been present just yet. However, we do expect Auring to intensify into a minimal Tropical Storm by tomorrow once it exits into the South China Sea.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

After crossing Palawan, Auring is forecast to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow afternoon. It may intensify into a minimal tropical storm but should remain weak as it crosses the South China Sea. There is a small possibility of it affecting Southern Vietnam by this weekend as well.

For the latest radar images and rainfall forecasts for areas in the Philippines, please click HERE (ClimateX PH).

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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