Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Tropical Update

It's been weeks since our last update and right now, the Western Pacific remains quiet and free from Tropical Cyclones--probably a sign that the season is winding down. Nevertheless, we continue to monitor possible areas of development and one of them is in the South China Sea. Invest 96W has been given 'MEDIUM' chance by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center while the Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded this system to a Tropical Depression.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite analysis suggest a developing low-level circulation center located roughly 400km east of Vietnam. Convective activity has persisted over the circulation for almost 24 hours now and with the somewhat favorable conditions in the region, the system may try to consolidate in the next 2 days or so. Despite the improvements today, computer models aren't showing any substantial development in the short-term. This LPA seems to be moving quickly to the west and may encounter land very soon which could inhibit development. Either way, heavy rains may associated with this disturbance may begin to impact Southern Vietnam, including Ho Chi Minh City, in the next 2 days.

Rest of the Western Pacific looks quiet. Some scattered showers may impact the Tropics including the Philippines and Palau due to the presence of surface troughs that are embedded along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 111312

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