Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Tropical Depression 25W Update #1

Invest 96W, which we first mentioned yesterday, has intensified into a Tropical Depression as it drifts across the South China Sea. Tropical Depression 25W was last located approximately 330km southeast of Ho Chi Minh City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 25W is moving westward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity surrounding the low-level circulation center. Low vertical wind shear is helping the system develop although we are noticing much of the cloud cover is still located along the western periphery. Unfortunately, we don't have any radar coverage in this part of Vietnam, although satellite data suggest widespread heavy rains may impact Southern Vietnam in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Due to proximity to land, we don't really expect TD 25W to develop much. However, despite being a weak system, it can still bring heavy rains of up to 200mm in the next two days around Southern Vietnam, including Ho Chi Minh City. The system might briefly intensify into a Tropical Storm before making landfall tomorrow evening at the earliest.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 111412

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