Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Tropical Storm Bopha Update #7

Tropical Storm Bopha continues to move westward today across the Pacific Ocean. The storm was last located approximately 360km south southwest of Chuuk. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Bopha is moving westward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Convective activity remains strong around the storm's center. However, despite the good appearance on satellite, further analysis suggest that the low-level center may be located north of the convection and that the system may be suffering somewhat from the northwesterly shear. Nevertheless, shear should remain weak enough to help the system attain typhoon status by as early as tomorrow afternoon (Friday).

Not much change in the forecasts this morning as the consensus from the computer model outputs continue to show a generally westward movement passing near Palau and Yap by Sunday. Then, we continue to see uncertainties as we move into next week. Some models insist on a track towards the Philippines while some models show a near-miss. We'll continue to monitor the progress of this system and we'll put out another update later this afternoon.
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 112912

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