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Text Update
Tropical Storm Bopha has started to accelerate as it moves across the Western Pacific. The storm was last located approximately 260km south southeast of Chuuk or about 630km west southwest of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Bopha is moving west northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Convective activity continues to improve as well as the poleward outflow. Weak wind shear and warm sea temperatures will help Bopha to continue intensifying over the next few days. Much of the rains have stayed south of Chuuk so far. However, some showers may move in to the islands and nearby atolls tonight. Pohnpei has also recorded 60mm of rain last night as some bands impacted the island. Please note that Tropical Storm Warnings remain posted across parts of the Micronesian Islands. You can go to the National Weather Service (Guam) website by clicking HERE
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Computer models continue to show disagreement over the next few days. Our current forecast track have changed little compared to yesterday and we are still going with the GFS forecast. For the first 3 days, we expect the system to continue moving generally westward, passing south of Chuuk tonight and well south of Guam by Friday; we also expect Bopha to attain Typhoon status by that time. During the weekend, Bopha is forecast to threaten the islands of Yap and Palau as a strong Category 2 Typhoon bringing strong winds and heavy rains. As for the Philippines, there are still large differences and uncertainties so for now, we urge everyone to continue following the forecasts for this system. Do remember that the timing (if Bopha does impact the Philippines) won't occur until the early part of next week so still lots of time for the tracks to change.
We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 112812
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