Friday, October 12, 2012

Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) Update #9

Typhoon Prapiroon (Bagyong Nina) is weakening as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 820km east of Basco, Batanes or about 660km south southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Prapiroon is currently moving northeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows that the eye is still visible. However, it is pretty evident that the convective activity has significantly decreased especially along the northern periphery of the system. We suspect dry air intrusion and the cooler waters in the area are contributing to the weakening.

Typhoon Prapiroon will continue moving northeastward through the next 2 days. It may turn slightly northwestward by Sunday or Monday as the subtropical ridge over Northern Pacific strengthens briefly. Consensus is still tight although JMA has been consistently showing a track towards Okinawa. We don't really think that will happen though. However, do continue to keep monitoring this system over the next 24 to 48 hours.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 101312

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