Saturday, October 13, 2012

Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) Update #10

Typhoon Prapiroon continues to weaken as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 600km south southeast of Okinawa or about 840km east northeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are now down to140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Prapiroon is moving northeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMYR

Latest satellite image shows the system continues to weaken with the eye now becoming much smaller and barely visible. There is still ample convective activity, though, and banding is still somewhat good near the storm's center. Furthermore, conditions are still partially favorable so we expect Prapiroon to maintain its Typhoon intensity for at least another day or two.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Prapiroon is moving northeastward but may slightly turn to the northwest as the extension of the subtropical ridge over the North Pacific strengthens briefly. This turn may put Prapiroon near the Daito Islands (some 300km east of Okinawa) by Monday or Tuesday. Strong winds, heavy rains, and rough surf will impact the islands. By Tuesday and Wednesday, Prapiroon is forecast to turn back northeastward and accelerate along the way.

Tropical Update

Meanwhile, Invest 90W continues to slowly develop near the Marianas Islands. A partially exposed low-level circulation center was last spotted roughly 350km north northeast of Guam. The disturbance is bringing widespread rains across Saipan and the Northern Marianas Islands. Some light rains have also been reported across Guam. Invest 90W still has a LOW chance of development according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center but the chances of development could increase in the next 3 days.

We'll have another update on Prapiroon tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 101312

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