Sunday, October 14, 2012

Tropical Depression 23W Update #1

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific! Tropical Depression 23W is the former Invest 90W and is located west of the Marianas Islands, roughly 480km north northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 23W is moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest infra-red image shows an improving structure with convective activity right over the center. Banding is still fragmented but it is improving. Despite the warm waters, wind shear is still somewhat moderate but is forecast to weaken allowing TD 23W to intensify. Right now, the system is far enough to avoid bringing rains across Guam and Saipan. However, rain showers are still possible in the region, especially in the northern sections of the Marianas.

Tropical Depression 23W is forecast to continue tracking westward under the subtropical ridge. By tomorrow (Tuesday), the system is forecast to start turning the northwest, becoming a Tropical Storm in the process, and eventually move northward. By Tuesday, TD 23W is forecast to move near Iwo To bringing rains, winds, and rough surf. As it moves farther north, TD 23W is forecast to start accelerating and then turn northeastward. The system is not expected to threaten Mainland Japan nor is it expected to reach Typhoon strength.

We'll have another update on this system tomorrow. Meanwhile, we'll have our complete Text and Video Update for Typhoon Prapiroon (Bagyong Nina) in half an hour.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 101412

No comments:

Post a Comment