Sunday, October 14, 2012

Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) Update #11 (w/ Video)

NOTE: Here is our latest Video Update for Typhoon Prapiroon and the newest Tropical Cyclone in the Western Pacific--Tropical Depression 23W. Scroll down below for our complete Text Update and Forecast Track for Typhoon Prapiroon.

Text Update

Typhoon Prapiroon (Bagyong Nina) has further weakened as it slowly moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 970km east northeast of Basco, Batanes or about 540km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Prapiroon is moving north northeastward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a clearing in the center which may suggest the eye is increasing in size. The center is surrounded by good convective banding and outflow is still pretty good. Prapiroon is moving slowly towards the Ryukyu with high clouds now moving into Daito Islands. Rain showers are still to the south but we expect precipitation to start impacting the islands within the next 24 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There has been quite a change in the forecast tracks in the past 24 hours. Much of the models and even the Joint Typhoon Warning Center have been shifting their tracks westward and now nearly resembles that of the Japan Meteorological Agency. With that said, we have shifted our forecast track as well--going with the consensus.

We expect Prapiroon to start turning northwestward and could pass between Okinawa and the Daito Islands by Tuesday and Wednesday. Rains and winds will begin for Daito Islands in the next 24 hours while we expect conditions to deteriorate over Okinawa in the next 36 to 48 hours. Furthermore, the threat of high waves will be present across the Ryukyu and even the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku throughout this week.

By Wednesday and Thursday, we expect Prapiroon to recurve and move back to the northeast avoiding a direct landfall in the Ryukyu. Prapiroon is forecast to maintain its typhoon intensity for at least another 3 or 4 days but should weaken rapidly as it moves northward just south of Mainland Japan.

We'll have another update on Typhoon Prapiroon tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 101412

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