Friday, October 12, 2012

Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) Update #8 (w/ Video)

NOTE: Here is our latest Video Update on Typhoon Prapiroon. Scroll down for our complete Text Update and Forecast Track.

Text Update

Typhoon Prapiroon (Bagyong Nina) has begun to move northward across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 740km east of Basco, Batanes or about 730km south southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 215kph. Prapiroon is moving north northeastward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

While we have increased the winds a little bit, recent images suggest that the system maybe slightly weakening. The eye has shrunk and has become rugged and cloud filled. Furthermore, convective activity has waned with cloud tops warming in the past 6 hours. We suspect some dry air and cooler waters are leading to the recent weakening. However, wind shear is still light and Prapiroon still has a pretty good radial outflow; those two factors should at least help offset the effects of cooler water temperatures.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Prapiroon is now beginning to move north northeastward as we've forecasted. The system will continue turning to the northeast away from Asia. However, please note the expanse of our Forecast Cone of Error. Due to the uncertainties that remain, we decided to still include Okinawa in that cone of error, basically urging residents out here to keep closely monitoring the developments of Prapiroon. Either way, Prapiroon will be moving very slowly in the next 48 hours anyway so we still have time to iron out our forecasts and determine whether or not Prapiroon will really impact Okinawa.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 101212

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