Monday, October 22, 2012

Tropical Update

The low pressure area east of Mindanao (Invest 92W) continues to consolidate and could become a Tropical Depression in the next 24 hours. Invest 92W was last located approximately 630km northeast of Davao City and is moving over the Philippine Sea. Japan Meteorological Agency has actually gone ahead and upgraded this system into a Tropical Depression. PAGASA and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center are yet to upgrade this. Once 92W become a depression, PAGASA will assign the local name 'Bagyong Ofel'.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image depicts a consolidating system with strong mid-level circulation. While the convective activity has been rather sparse, we expect that to pick up later tonight. An anti-cyclone sits overhead Invest 92W and together with the warm sea temperatures in the Philippine Sea, favorable conditions will help this LPA intensify in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Computer models agree on a possible intensification into a Tropical Storm by Wednesday just before the system moves into Visayas area. Widespread rains will be a threat across Visayas and Mindanao over the next 2 to 3 days bringing the possibility of landslides and flashfloods. Continue to check the latest updates on this developing system.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 102212

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