Sunday, October 21, 2012

Tropical Update

We continue to watch Invest 92W as it slowly consolidates over the Pacific. This low pressure area was last located approximately 180km southeast of Palau. A low-level circulation center has been observed on satellite analysis. Furthermore, wind reports in Palau and nearby areas indicate a steady increase in wind speeds along with a slow decrease in atmosphere pressure; both indicating that 92W may be starting to get its act together.

IR Image from NRLMY

Invest 92W is situated in an area of low vertical wind shear and favorable sea surface temperatures. However, this LPA is still in the early stages and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is only giving a LOW chance for development. We may have to wait another 2 days before we see any substantial improvement in the structure. Nevertheless, today's trends and the continuous depictions by the computer models are increasing the chances of seeing a possible cyclone formation in the next 3 days or so.

Whether or not 92W develops into a storm, it will still likely bring widespread rains across Visayas and Mindanao by the middle of next week.

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 102112

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