Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Tropical Depression Ofel Update #2 (w/ Video)

NOTE: Here is our latest Video Update on Tropical Depression Ofel. Please scroll down below for the complete Text Update including the Signal Warnings from PAGASA and also our very own Forecast Track.

Text Update

Tropical Depression 92 (Bagyong Ofel) continues to slowly consolidate over the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 400km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 92W (Ofel) is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 to the provinces of Leyte, Southern Leyte, Eastern and Western Samar, Bohol, Camotes Island, Dinagat, Surigao Provinces, Agusan Provinces, Camiguin Island, and Misamis Oriental. The said provinces should expect winds of up to 60kph along with widespread rains to occur within the next 48 hours. Flooding and landslides are possible so please consult with your local officials for any warnings or updates in your area.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tropical Depression Ofel continues to struggle developing over the ocean. Convective activity is still pretty weak and fragmented with no clear signs of tight banding. However, we are still expecting this system to eventually intensify into a Tropical Storm as early as tomorrow due to the favorable conditions in the region. While the depression is still too far right now to direct impact Mindanao, some scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the area ahead of TD 92W.

Forecast  Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our forecast track takes Ofel into Northern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas by tomorrow (Wednesday), possibly as a weak Tropical Storm. It will move across the islands of Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, and Panay by Wednesday evening and will likely move near Mindoro and Northern Palawan by Thursday. By Friday, TD Ofel is forecast to move out into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. The system is forecast to remain as a weak tropical storm in the next few days although some intensification is possible. Either way, the biggest threat from this system will be the widespread rains that could impact Northern Mindanao, Visayas, and even parts of Southern Luzon as we head into the next few days.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 102312

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