Tropical Update

Low pressure area Invest 92W is now passing over Guam as it continues to move westward. The system remains somewhat disorganized with no clear sign of a low-level circulation center. However, radar images from Guam shows a weak mid-level circulation center along with widespread rains that are affecting the Marianas Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 92W is in an area of somewhat favorable region with very warm sea surface temperatures and low to moderate wind shear. As we have been saying for the past 2 days now, this LPA could eventually develop into a cyclone as it moves across the Philippine Sea. Numerous computer models do show a cyclone formation in the next 3 to 5 days. The GFS model remains the most aggressive and has been showing nearly the same solution for the past 48 hours. Furthermore, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has started to track the system although giving it a "LOW" chance of development for now.

We'll continue watching this system closely and we'll have another update tomorrow afternoon.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 091812