Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Tropical Update

The Western Pacific remains quiet so far cyclone-wise although a low pressure area in the Philippine Sea could develop into a tropical storm in the next few days. We are also watching a shallow low pressure area moving across the Philippines and is bringing widespread rain showers in the country.

IR Image from NOAA

Invest 92W is now moving across the Philippine Sea after bringing a period of rainy conditions across Guam and the Marianas Islands. This low pressure area continue to be disorganized with no clear low-level circulation center. However, recent satellite data suggest improving banding and a consolidating center. Furthermore, the environment where Invest 92W is in right now is very conducive for tropical development characterized by weak wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and favorable upper-level conditions. Computer models continue to show development although only the GFS really develops 92W into something formidable this week. The other models are either slower in development or are just focusing on another piece of energy aside from 92W. Even the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded 92W's chances to MEDIUM. Based on the latest data, there is an increasing chance for cyclone development in the next 3 to 5 days across the Philippine Sea.

Meanwhile, a weak and shallow low pressure area is currently moving across Luzon and is bringing widespread rain showers in the Philippines. This LPA is not expected to develop but could bring 50mm of rain or more in the next 12 to 24 hours especially in Southern Luzon and Visayas.

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow.
Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 091912

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