A new Tropical Cyclone formed in the Western Pacific today! Tropical Depression (Unnamed) was located approximately of 560km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. It is currently moving northward at 15kph. Please be noted that only the Japan Meteorological Agency is classifying this as a Tropical Depression as of right now. However, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to monitor this area and have upgraded its chances to MEDIUM; we could likewise see the JTWC upgrade this to a depression within the next 2 days.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows an improvement in the overall organization of this depression. This is the same Invest 93W that we've been monitoring for the past 3 days. This system is still embedded along the monsoon trough that is linked with Typhoon Jelawat located to the west. Some shear and subsidence has been acting upon this system for the past 48 hours leading for the majority of the convection to form east of the circulation. However, recent images show new convective activity forming much closer to the core which may suggest slow consolidating that could result to further intensification in the next 24 to 36 hours.
For now though, TD 93W is too far to directly impact the Marianas Islands. However, some scattered rain showers could affect the region particularly along Saipan and the neighboring islands to the north. Furthermore, breezy conditions and rough surf (also influenced by Jelawat) should be expected along these region throughout the next 2 to 3 days. In fact, a High Surf Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for the Marianas.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Tropical Depression 93W will continue moving northward at a constant pace in the next 24 hours. It may wobble a little bit as the steering factors in the atmosphere continue to change. It will also intensify along the way as shear is forecast to slightly weaken and the sea surface temperatures along the track will be supportive of further strengthening. 93W could become a Tropical Storm by Tuesday and will be passing well west of Iwo To. It is forecast to start turning more to the north northeast influenced by the subtropical ridge. Depending on the rate of intensification, TD 93W has a slight chance of becoming a Typhoon by either Wednesday or Thursday. By this time, the system could be moving very near Japan and could become a threat to Southeastern Honshu particularly near Tokyo by the latter part of the week.
We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay tuned for our complete Text and Video Updates on Typhoon Jelawat which will be coming in about an hour!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 092312
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