Sunday, September 23, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat (Lawin) Update #7 (w/ Video)

Here is our latest Video Update on Typhoon Jelawat and also on another cyclone that just formed west of the Marianas Islands. It is a lengthy video so please bear with us as discuss in-detail these two systems. If you are only interested in one system, our update on Jelawat begins at the 0:14 mark while our update for the new Tropical Depression begins at around the 10:56 mark. Again, thank you for your patience! Scroll down below for our complete Text Update and exclusive Forecast Track. For our update on Tropical Depression near Guam, please click HERE


Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) has rapidly intensified in the past 12 hours; going from a Tropical Storm this morning to a full-blown Category 3 Typhoon! The storm's center was last located approximately 380km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Jelawat is starting to move very slowly to the north with a speed of about 5kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the entire island of Samar expecting winds of up to 60kph. Widespread rains will also impact the area and could bring as much as 100mm in the next 24 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the well-defined pinhole eye with a diameter of about 20km. The eye is surrounded by a ring of very strong convective activity. An improved dual outflow channels helped the system rapidly intensify today. There is some hints of a concentric eyewall forming but we're not that concerned yet; with the latest trends, however, there is a possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle occurring in the next 3 days. Satellite image above also shows strong convection associated with the outer rain bands from Jelawat affecting parts of Eastern Visayas and Southern Luzon. Some areas here could receive 50 to even 100mm of rain tonight. Southwesterly monsoonal flow also beginning to be enhanced by Jelawat bringing rains across Palawan and parts of Mindanao.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Forecast Tracks from both the official agencies and computer models continue to shift east. In fact, the latest trends suggest that the landfall in Luzon is becoming less likely. However, we still have low to fair confidence in the current forecasts mainly because of the inconsistencies among the model solutions along with the uncertainties regarding the main steering factors in the next few days.

For now though, we're keeping Northern Luzon along with Taiwan and the Japanese Islands inside the cone of uncertainty. We are taking Jelawat generally northward and could become a Category 5 in the next 2 days (slightly higher intensity forecasts compared to JTWC). By Wednesday and Thursday, Jelawat could turn more to the northwest in response to a strengthening ridge in Eastern China. By this time, we also expect Jelawat to slightly weaken from a Category 5 as we expect an eyewall replacement cycle to occur by this time.

Residents from Northern Luzon to Taiwan to the Japanese Islands should continue to monitor this system for any changes in the forecasts. Please be reminded that we are NOT and official weather agency. Always listen to PAGASA for the latest Signal Warnings and also to your local officials for any evacuations or alerts in your area. Stay safe!
We'll have another update on Jelawat tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 092312

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