Saturday, September 22, 2012

Tropical Storm Jelawat (Lawin) Update #6

Tropical Storm Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) continues to intensify as it meanders across the Philippine Sea, still east of the Philippine Islands. The storm was last located approximately 380km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 110kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Jelawat is moving westward at 5kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has dropped Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for some reason Signal #1 is still in effect for Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Western Samar. These provinces will continue to see gusty winds of up to 60kph along with widespread rains of up to 100mm throughout today. Waves will be rough across the entire eastern seaboard so sea travel is not recommended.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the Central Dense Overcast is becoming more uniform surrounded by very strong convective activity. Both outflow channels continue to improve as well. In fact, a recent microwave image shows an eyewall beginning to form and Jelawat could intensify to a typhoon later this afternoon. Meanwhile, outer rain bands from Jelawat continue to affect parts of Visayas and Mindanao Areas have reported around 50mm of rain last night and more could fall in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Forecast tracks have shifted to the east now due to the improving agreement among computer models. Please stay tuned for our complete Forecast later this afternoon. For now, stormy conditions will persist along Eastern Visayas particularly in Samar Island. Rains could also impact parts of Northern Mindanao and Southern Luzon areas.

We'll have another update later today
Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 092312

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