Thursday, September 27, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat (Lawin) Update #16

Super Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) continues to bring rains and strong winds in the area north of Luzon. The eye was last located approximately 300km northeast of Basco, Batanes or about 380km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 320km south of the Yaeyema Islands. Maximum sustained winds are around 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph; Jelawat has weakened slightly but remains a powerful Category 4 Super Typhoon. The storm is moving northward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #2 for Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #1 is up for Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Apayao. These provinces should continue to expect strong winds and heavy rains particularly in the Batanes Islands. Weather should begin to improve later tonight and into tomorrow.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Jelawat has become smaller and more rugged. The inner core of the typhoon is starting to decay as it interacts with stronger wind shear and cooler waters. The outer rain bands continue to impact Batanes Islands bringing rains of up to 30-50mm last night. Much of the rainbands have stayed east of Taiwan but scattered light rains are still being reported along the coast. Aside from the rains, tropical storm gusts continue to be reported  across the area along with very rough waves.

Radar from JMA

Outer rain bands from Jelawat are also beginning to impact the Yaeyema Islands which could bring 10 to even 20mm of rain in an hour. As much as 100 to 200mm could fall in these islands in the next 2 days. Aside from the rains, strong winds are beginning to be reported across Yaeyema as well with some stations now receiving sustained Tropical Storm-force winds of 60 to 80kph along with occasional gusts of above 100kph. These rains and winds will continue to increase in intensity throughout the day today with the worst expected around Ishigaki and Yaeyema later tonight where sustained typhoon-force winds of up to 140kph are possible. For the latest warnings, forecasts, and radar images from Japan, please visit the Japan Meteorological Agency by clicking HERE

Super Typhoon Jelawat will continue to move north and then turn to the northeast later today. It should also weaken below super typhoon strength but still a Category 4 as the inner structure continues to erode. Typhoon winds are possible across Yaeyema Islands tonight and into tomorrow along with heavy rains. By early Saturday morning, we expect Jelawat to weaken to a Category 3 and by Saturday afternoon, it could move near Okinawa, or even make landfall in that island as a Category 2 Typhoon capable of bringing strong winds of up to 160kph along with heavy rains.

Jelawat should accelerate to the northeast by Sunday and eventually make landfall in Honshu by Monday morning as a weakening Tropical Storm.

We'll have another update later this afternoon. For more info on our forecasts, you can watch our Video (issued Yesterday) below.

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 092812

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