Thursday, September 27, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat (Lawin) Update #15 (w/ Video)

Here is our latest Video Update on Super Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) east of Luzon and also on Tropical Storm Ewiniar near Iwo To. Update on Jelawat starts at the beginning while our update on Tropical Storm Ewiniar begins at around the 10:59 mark. Again, thank you for watching our lengthy yet in-depth video update! Scroll down below for our complete Text Update and Forecast Track.

Text Update

Super Typhoon continues to move northward near Taiwan and the Batanes Islands. The eye of Jelawat was last located approximately 250km east of Basco, Batanes or about 540km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds have slightly increased to 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. Jelawat is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has now raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Batanes Group of Islands for possible typhoon-force winds in the next 12 to 24 hours. Signal #2 for Cagayan, Calayan, and Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #1 is in effect for Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and Isabela. Provinces mentioned should expect strong winds to remain in the next 24 hours along with the possibility of heavy rains that could bring as much as 50mm. Batanes Islands could actually see 100mm of rain tonight and tomorrow along with winds of up to 120 to 140kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Jelawat remaining very well-defined and is also larger compared to yesterday with a current diameter of 60-km. The eye continues to be surrounded by strong convective activity along with good dual outflow channels. Some of the convection affect Northeastern Luzon especially in Cagayan Province where some areas have reported nearly 50mm of rain in the past 24 hours. Further to the north, Batanes Islands could see heavy rains along with strong winds tonight and will last throughout tomorrow.

Radar from CWB

Radars from Taiwan are now beginning to pick up the outer rain bands of Jelawat as they move in from the southeast. Some of those rains could move into Eastern Taiwan tonight and will become more widespread by tomorrow. Some places here could also see rainfall amounts of 100 to even 150mm despite Jelawat not forecast to make landfall. Please visit the Central Weather Bureau for the latest radar images, warnings, and forecasts for Taiwan. You can access CWB by clicking HERE

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Super Typhoon Jelawat is currently moving north northeastward but should turn more to the north tonight. It will remains as a very strong Super Typhoon tomorrow bringing windy conditions and heavy rains across Taiwan, Batanes Islands, and the Yaeyema Islands. By tomorrow evening, Jelawat could move near Ishigaki and the nearby Japanese Islands bringing typhoon force winds of up to 140kph along with heavy rains.

By this time, a mid-latitude trough diving down in Eastern China should begin to pick up Jelawat and steer it to the northeast. By Saturday afternoon, Jelawat could move very near Okinawa and could actually make landfall in the island. We are forecasting Jelawat to weaken by this time but it is still expected to remain as a powerful Category 3 Typhoon with winds of up to 200kph possible in the island, along with the threat of heavy rains.

Jelawat is forecast to maintain its typhoon intensity through Sunday as it accelerates to the northeast. By Monday, the system could weaken to a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall in Honshu, perhaps near the Kii Peninsula in Wakayama Prefecture.

If you are in Yaeyema and Okinawa, continue to closely monitor Jelawat and prepare now if you haven't done so!

We'll have another update on Jelawat tomorrow morning. Please always consult your local officials for the latest warnings and forecasts in your area, stay safe!
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 092712

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