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Text Update
Super Typhoon Jelawat (Bagyong Lawin) continues to move northeastward near the extreme Northern Luzon. The eye of the typhoon was last located approximately 480km east of Aparri, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds have weakened slightly to 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. Jelawat has now been downgraded to a Category 4 but still a Super Typhoon. Jelawat is moving northwestward at 10kph.
As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Cagayan, Babuyan, Calayan, and Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #1 is in effect for Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and Isabela. The said provinces should expect winds of up to 100kph to occur in the next 24 to 48 hours. Along with strong winds, areas in Northern Luzon should also expect rains to begin tonight and tomorrow. Rainfall amounts of up to 150mm are possible in some areas.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image suggest that Jelawat may have successfully completed an eyewall replacement cycle once more. But this time, we no longer expect it to intensify. Much of the convection remains offshore at this time but may soon impact parts of Northern Luzon by tomorrow. Heavy rains and strong winds should be expected in Northern Luzon and also on the islands north of Luzon that is why we have several provinces under a Signal Warning from PAGASA. The Southwest Monsoon, meanwhile, hasn't been that strong and we're not seeing any widespread rains from it. However, the monsoon may still bring scattered rains for Visayas and Luzon in the next 2 to 3 days.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Consensus is becoming better now and we have high confidence with our following forecast. Jelawat should continue moving northwestward, maintaining that super typhoon intensity through tomorrow. It will move within 300km of Cagayan and the islands north of Luzon so expect stormy conditions to occur here. By Friday, Jelawat should turn more to the north as a mid-latitude trough dives down from Eastern Asia. This trough will pick up Jelawat and spare Taiwan from seeing a direct landfall. By Saturday, Jelawat is forecast to accelerate to the northeast, perhaps moving near Okinawa by Saturday afternoon. In our latest forecast track, we are putting Okinawa on the left side of Jelawat which means they will see the weaker side of the storm. However, any slight changes in the movement could put Okinawa on the right front quadrant which has the strongest winds from the typhoon.
Super Typhoon Jelawat should begin weakening tomorrow and perhaps become a Category 3 by Friday. It could further weaken to a Category 2 by Saturday as it moves near Okinawa.
We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 092612
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