Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Typhoon Tembin (Igme) Update #6

Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) has weakened further overnight and is now down to a Category 2 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 340km northeast of Basco, Batanes or about 460km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 160kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Tembin is currently moving north northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, Batanes Group of Islands remain under Public Storm Warning Signal #1 from PAGASA. As for Taiwan, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) has issued a Land and Sea Warning for Yilan, Hualien, and Taitung County. This is a very dangerous storm and could make landfall in 24 to 36 hours. If you are in the counties mentioned, please prepare now and heed the warnings from your government!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tembin continued to weaken overnight and has lost its eye feature on the infra-red satellite. Latest images, however, seem to suggest that the storm has stabilized a little bit with more convection starting to refire. Latest microwave images (not included here) also show that the eyewall remains intact. The Central Dense Overcast also remains fully established although we continue to see disruptions along the northern and southeastern sides of the system. The poleward outflow has degraded in the past 24 hours which could explain the weakening. JTWC has also mentioned the presence of two Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTT) which are inducing unfavorable conditions over the system.

Despite the weakening, we still expect Tembin to remain as a strong typhoon before landfall. It could even intensify back to a Category 3 later today if conditions improve. Either way, Tembin will slightly weaken before landfall as it interacts with the mountainous terrain in Taiwan. Based on latest data, Tembin could make landfall in Hualien or Taitung County as a weakening Category 2 but still a very dangerous threat across the country. Tembin will weaken as it cross the island bringing damaging winds and heavy rains Thursday and into Friday. Tembin will weaken to a Tropical Storm before making landfall in Guangdong Province in China by late Friday evening. Lately, computer models have shown a much stronger influence from Bolaven. While we still think Tembin will landfall into China, we might have to adjust our forecast tracks once we get more info.

We'll have another update together with our Forecast Track later today. Stay safe!
Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 082212

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