Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Typhoon Bolaven Update #5

Tropical Storm Bolaven intensified overnight and has been upgraded into a Category 1 typhoon. Typhoon Bolaven was last located approximately 900km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 130kph with gusts of up to 160kph. Bolaven is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows that the eye hasn't become visible yet and still seems to be under the cloud canopy. Nevertheless, a microwave image (now shown here) taken an hour ago reveals that an eyewall has formed and is becoming more defined. The Central Dense Overcast (CDO) remains good surrounded by strong convective activity. The equatorward outflow also remains excellent and the poleward outflow should start improving as well in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Computer model forecasts have shifted south somewhat but the consensus is still taking Bolaven near Okinawa by Saturday. By then, it could be a Category 3 typhoon (or even a Cat 4). But before that, Bolaven is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later today and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Julian' by PAGASA. Bolaven could undergo a period of Rapid Intensification tomorrow as it is expected to have dual outflow channels, as well as be in an area of weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

We'll have more updates and forecasts later today.
Issued (2330 UTC) 7am PhT 082212

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