Monday, August 20, 2012

Typhoon Tembin (Igme) Update #4

Note: For our Video Update on both Tembin and Bolaven, please click HERE

TS Tembin has rapidly intensified in the past 24 hours and is now a strong Category 2 typhoon. Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) was last located approximately 370km east of Aparri, Cagayan or about 400km southeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 175kph with gusts of up to 215kph. Tembin is currently moving north northeastward at 10kph.

PAGASA has finally upgraded Igme into a Typhoon on their afternoon update (in the video we were complaining how this agency seems to be pretty slow in analyzing Tembin). The agency has kept Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Cagayan and Isabela.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the well-organized typhoon. The Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of Tembin remains pretty established although the eye has degraded in the past 6 hours. Earlier today, a well-defined 20 nautical mile eye formed on Tembin but has since shrunk down and became irregular. We suspect that this is because of the eyewall in the system shrinking and "choking" down. We'll have to see if Tembin can manage to recuperate and "fix" that eye.

The storm continues to have good dual outflow channels and a meso-anticyclone that has formed over Tembin is providing weak wind shear. Tembin is a pretty small typhoon and most of the stormy conditions remain offshore of Luzon so we only have Signal #1 issued by PAGASA. However, still be wary of rough waves across the entire seaboard of Luzon. Northern Luzon will also have some occasional rains enhanced by Tembin. Some stations in Mt. Province and Cagayan have reported 50 to even 100mm in the past 24 hours and another 50mm could fall in some places tonight and into tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Tembin will continue moving northward tonight. Despite the apparent degrading of the eye, we are still expecting Tembin to continue intensifying in the next two days. Based on the latest data, there is a good chance that Tembin will peak at Category 4 typhoon by Wednesday evening. It will then start turning westward, potentially making landfall in Hualien County in Taiwan by Thursday morning as a very strong typhoon. It will then weaken to a minimal typhoon as it cross Taiwan. Damaging winds and torrential rainfall should be expected by Thursday and Friday.

Tembin will exit into Taiwan Strait and could perhaps make a second landfall in Guangdong or Fujian Province by Friday. By this time, Tembin should have weakened to a Tropical Storm. Computer models are showing Tembin to remain intact even into Saturday and could move near Hong Kong as a weak cyclone.

We'll have another update tomorrow. If you are in Taiwan, please prepare NOW!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082012

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