Monday, August 20, 2012

Tropical Storm Bolaven Update #3

Tropical Storm Bolaven has intensified overnight and continues to move away from the Marianas. The system was last located approximately 660km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85kph with gusts of up to 120kph. Bolaven is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Satellite image shows Bolaven continuing to consolidate as it absorbs the remnants of Invest 98W. Equatorward outflow remains good while the poleward outflow keeps on improving. Bolaven remains in an area of light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures which should help the system intensify further.

Forecast tracks continue to bring Bolaven westward and are expecting it to continue intensifying. Based on the latest trends, Bolaven could become a typhoon as early as tonight or perhaps early tomorrow (Wednesday). Bolaven will be tracking under the Subtropical Ridge and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by early Thursday morning. There is still a lot of uncertainty with regards to landfall; stay tuned for our next Forecast Track later this afternoon.

We'll have another update later today.
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 082112

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