Monday, August 20, 2012

Typhoon Tembin (Igme) Update #5

Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) continues to intensify as it slowly moves away from Luzon. The storm's center was last located approximately 380km east southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 740km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 210kph with gusts of up to 260kph; this makes Tembin a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir Simpson Scale. Bolaven is currently moving north northeastward at 10kph.

As of 5am, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Cagayan as well as on the Groups of Islands of Calayan, Babuyan, and Batanes. These areas will continue to experience breezy conditions with winds of up to 60kph. Some light rains are also possible. Furthermore, the entire seaboard of Luzon (including Taiwan) will have rough waves.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the pinhole eye of Tembin surrounded by strong convective activity. Tembin continues to have good poleward outflow and an improving equatorward ouflow. Wind shear in the region remains weak along with warm sea surface temperatures. Recent satellite data, however, shows a partial degrading of the eyewall as it continues to contract. We may see Tembin weaken slightly today back to a Category 3.

Nevertheless, Tembin will remain in good environment for about 24 to 36 hours more so it should strengthen back up to a strong Category 4. By Wednesday evening, it will start turning more to the west towards Taiwan. Wind shear along Eastern Taiwan increases significantly which should weaken Tembin before it makes landfall. Current forecasts are expecting Tembin to make landfall in Hualien County by early Thursday morning. It will then cross Taiwan, weakening to a Category 1, and eventually make a second landfall in Guangdong or Fujian Province by Friday morning. Tembin will rapidly weaken thereafter.

We'll have another update later today.
Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 082112

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