Thursday, August 23, 2012

Typhoon Tembin (Igme) Update #10

For our latest Video Update on Typhoon Tembin and Typhoon Bolaven, please click HERE

Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) has slowed east of Taiwan and has also rapidly intensified in the past 12 hours. Tembin was last located approximately 320km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 260km north northeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds have now increased to 195kph with gusts of up to 230kph; this makes Tembin a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Typhoon Tembin is currently moving westward at 10kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #1 is in effect for Calayan and Babuyan Groups of Islands. The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, on the other hand, has placed nearly the entire country under a Typhoon Warning (except Taipei). It has also issued Extremely Heavy Rain Advisory all across the country.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the much-improved look of Tembin. The central dense overcast (CDO) is much more defined along with the improved outflow channels. More importantly, we can now see the eye again surrounded by deep convective activity. Tembin still has 12 hours to go before landfall so we still expect this system to perhaps intensify into a Category 4 later tonight.

Radar Image from CWB

Latest radar image from Taiwan showing the bands of light to moderate rains beginning to affect parts of the island. There could be 50 to 100mm of rain falling tonight with the heavier rains expected to arrive by dawn tomorrow. All in all, there could be as much as 500mm of rain in the next 2 days, especially in the mountainous areas. Winds along the east coast are also starting to increase with some stations now reporting sustained winds of up to 60kph. Obviously, winds will continue to increase overnight with the worst expected between 3 and 6am as Tembin makes landfall. Some areas could experience sustained winds of 160 to even 180kph! Typhoon-force winds will extend into the inland areas throughout Friday morning. For more radar images, forecasts, and warnings from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB Website)

Typhoon Tembin (Bagyong Igme) will continue moving westward, making landfall near the city of Taidong in Taitung County between 3 and 6am tomorrow morning. It will then head into Kaohsiung and the rest of Southern Taiwanese Counties. It will significantly weaken as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan. Tembin is forecast to exit the island as a Category 1 typhoon as early as Friday evening or perhaps by Saturday morning.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Once it exits Taiwan and moves into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea, we expect a Fujiwhara Effect to occur between Tembin and Bolaven (Julian). This interaction will slow down Tembin and could stay southwest of Taiwan for the next 2 to even 3 days. This is a very scary scenario as it could continue bringing rains onto Taiwan throughout the weekend. If our forecasts pan out, Tembin should start moving northeastward by Sunday night or into Monday, nearing the southern part of Taiwan. By this time, the system will have weakened to a Tropical Storm but could still bring rains across Taiwan and even into Extreme Northern Luzon.

We'll have more updates tomorrow morning. Remember we are NOT AN OFFICIAL AGENCY so please always listen to the warnings and forecasts from your local officials particularly from the Central Weather Bureau. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082312

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