Thursday, August 23, 2012

Typhoon Bolaven (Julian) Update #8

Typhoon Bolaven continues to intensify as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility; PAGASA has assigned the local name 'Julian' for this storm. Typhoon Bolaven (Bagyong Julian) continues to track across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 1,040km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Bolaven is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows what seems to be the first stages of an eye starting to appear. Convection remains very strong although the central part of the Bolaven are seen having warmer cloud tops indicating the eye is trying to form. Equatorward outflow remains excellent as well with the poleward outflow still remaining weak. Typhoon Bolaven is also beginning to tap into the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and could eventually enhance rain showers across Luzon and Visayas in the next two (2) days.

Typhoon Bolaven (Julian) will continue moving across the Philippine Sea and will still intensify along the way. Southwest Monsoon rains could impact Luzon and Visayas tomorrow and could last into the weekend. Meanwhile, as it moves across favorable conditions, we expect Bolaven to intensify to a Category 4 typhoon by as early as tomorrow evening. It will remain as a very powerful Category 4, nearing Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyus Islands by Saturday.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Conditions in the island will deteriorate beginning Saturday with the worst conditions expected for Okinawa by Sunday midnight into Sunday morning. During this time, Okinawa could experience sustained winds of more than 200kph! Right now, TCCOR from Kadena remains at 4 although we expect that to gradually be upgraded tomorrow and Saturday. As Bolaven rounds the Subtropical Ridge, it will start to accelerate to the north. Cooler waters and increasing wind shear will slowly weaken Bolaven down to perhaps a Category 2 Typhoon by Monday. Nevertheless, the system will still pose a significant threat for Eastern China and the Korean Peninsula by early next week.

We'll have another update on this system tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082312

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